In an election for United States House of Representatives in Kentucky’s 3rd Congressional District today, 09/01/10, two months till votes are counted, Democratic incumbent John Yarmuth and Republican Todd Lally finish effectively even, according to this latest exclusive Louisville Courier-Journal Bluegrass / WHAS-TV Poll conducted by SurveyUSA. A Republican take-away in this district would increase the Republican chances of recapturing control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Today, Yarmuth gets 47% of the vote; Lally gets 45%, a result within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error. Among men, Lally leads by 13 points; among women, Yarmuth leads by 18 — a 31-point gender gap. Lally leads among the youngest, least reliable voters. Yarmuth leads among older, more reliable voters. Lally leads 5:4 among whites; Yarmuth leads 5:1 among blacks. If black turnout is higher than the 15% of likely voters that SurveyUSA shows here, the Democrat will out-perform these numbers. If black turnout is lower, the Democrat will under-perform these numbers. Each candidate holds roughly 8 of 10 partisan votes; Independents favor the Republican.

Yarmuth, first elected in 2006 with 51% of the vote, is seeking a third term. He won with 59% in 2008. Lally is a commercial pilot and Lieutenant Colonel in the Kentucky Air National Guard.

In an election for Louisville Metro Mayor today, 08/31/10, Republican Hal Heiner and Democrat Greg Fischer finish effectively even, according to this latest exclusive Louisville Courier-Journal Bluegrass / WHAS-TV Poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

Today, it’s Fischer 47%, Heiner 45%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released one month ago, the race is essentially unchanged, with Heiner flat and Fischer up a nominal 2 points. There is some movement among demographic subgroups, but most of the movement that does exist is offsetting, with gains for Heiner among the youngest voters offset by gains for Fischer among the oldest. Heiner, a Metro Councilman, continues to lead by double digits among men — by 12 points today, down from a 17-point lead last month. Fischer, a 2008 candidate for US Senate, continues to lead among double digits among women — by 16 points today, slightly down from an 18-point lead last month. Put together, it yields a significant 28-point gender gap. White voters continue to narrowly favor Heiner; black voters continue to strongly favor Fischer. One piece of movement does appear favorable toward Fischer: one month ago, Fischer led by 48 points among Democrats, while Heiner led by 74 points among Republicans. Today, Heiner’s GOP lead has dipped ever-so-slightly, to 69 points, while Fischer’s lead among Democrats has increased to 60 points.

Turnout will be critical in determining the winner, and it is conceivable either candidate could be pulled into office by the coattails of the US Senate candidate from his party.

In an election today for the open US House of Representatives seat in Washington State’s 3rd Congressional District, Republican Jaime Herrera is 4:3 atop Democrat Denny Heck, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KING-TV Seattle.

Herrera has a broad constituency, and has an early advantage among both men and women, young and old. Moderates break 5:4 Democrat, but Independents break 5:3 Republican. When the sub-populations are combined, it’s Herrera 54%, Heck 41%. Herrera, a member of the State House of Representatives, gets 9 of 10 Republican votes; Heck, a former State House Majority Leader, holds 8 of 10 Democrats. Since 1960, the 3rd District has been held by a Republican for only 2 terms, from 1995 to 1999. Incumbent Democrat Brian Baird, elected in 1998, is not seeking a 7th term. In a 6-person primary 08/17/10, Heck defeated Herrera 31% to 28%. In that primary, 54% of votes went to a Republican, 42% of votes went to a Democrat.

In an election for mayor of Oakland CA today,  former State Senator Don Perata leads a crowded field, according to an exclusive KPIX-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

Voters have the opportunity to indicate their 1st, 2nd and 3rd choices for Mayor. Perata gets 41% of 1st-choice votes, City Council Member Jean Quan gets 26%, City Council Member Rebecca Kaplan gets 14%. 10 others on the ballot combine for 12%. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, the candidate with the fewest number of votes is eliminated, and that candidate’s votes are re-allocated based on the second choice. This continues until a candidate has a majority of votes.

When asked for a 2nd choice:
Those whose 1st choice is Kaplan break 4:3 for Perata.
Those whose 1st choice is Quan break 3:2 for Kaplan.

It is impossible in a telephone survey to mirror exactly how voters will behave when given the opportunity to mark their ballots 3 times, but the cascading series of questions that SurveyUSA asked, and the crosstabs that accompany them, offer a window into just where support for runners-up would go.

In an election for US House of Representatives in Kansas’ 1st Congressional District today, 08/09/10, Republican Tim Huelskamp defeats Democrat Alan Jilka 65% to 23%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KWCH-TV Wichita.

Jilka, the former mayor of Salinas, leads only among Democrats, liberals, and those with unfavorable opinions of the Tea Party movement, all minorities in the 1st District. Huelskamp, a state senator, gets 6 of 10 votes among men and women, young and old alike. 1 in 10 Republicans cross over to vote for the Democrat; 1 in 4 Democrats cross over to vote for the Republican. Independents favor Huelskamp by 14 points.

The 1st District, created in 1874, has been represented by a Democrat only for one term, from 1953-1955. Incumbent Republican Jerry Moran is running for US Senate.

In a Republican Primary for US Senate in Kansas today, 08/02/10, 36 hours until votes are counted, Todd Tiahrt continues to gain ground on Jerry Moran, with a close finish possible, according to SurveyUSA’s final pre-primary tracking poll conducted exclusively for KWCH-TV in Wichita.

Today it’s Moran 49%, Tiahrt 39%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 2 weeks ago, Tiahrt is up 3 points; Moran is down 1. Tiahrt has gained 10 points in the past 2 months, while Moran has treaded water. Tiahrt’s 39% of the vote today is his highest in 16 months of SurveyUSA tracking. Tiahrt has caught up to Moran among men and among voters under age 50, and he now edges Moran by 5 points among conservatives. Two months ago, Moran led by 21 points among conservatives. Moran continues to hold double-digit leads among both women and voters age 50+. Most ominous for Moran: Among the 17% of voters who report they have already cast their ballots, Tiahrt is nominally ahead, 46% to 43%. Among those who tell SurveyUSA they are likely to vote, but have not yet done so, Moran leads by 13.

In an election for United States Senator from Kentucky today, Republican Rand Paul edges Democrat Jack Conway, 51% to 43%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for the Louisville Courier-Journal and WHAS-TV.

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 2 months ago, the contest is essentially unchanged, with Paul flat and Conway down a nominal 2 points. Paul today runs a little stronger among men, a little weaker among women, than he did in SurveyUSA’s last poll. Conway may have made up some ground in Western Kentucky, but lost some ground in Eastern Kentucky. 1 in 4 Democrats cross-over to vote Republican. Independents break 3:2 Republican.

 In an election today for Oregon governor, 3 months until ballots are returned, Republican Chris Dudley and Democrat John Kitzhaber finish effectively even, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KATU-TV in Portland.

Today, it’s Dudley 46%, Kitzhaber 44%, within the survey’s 4.2 percentage point margin of sampling error. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 7 weeks ago, Kitzhaber is up 4 points; Dudley is down 1. Men are moving to Kitzhaber: 7 weeks ago, Dudley, a former center for the Portland Trail Blazers, led by 14 among male voters. Today, Dudley trails by 4, an 18-point swing. Affluent voters are moving to Kitzhaber: 7 weeks ago, Dudley lead by 14 among Oregonians who earn more than $50,000 a year. Today, tied.

Kitzhaber, Governor of Oregon from 1995 to 2003, leads among the youngest and often least-reliable voters. Dudley leads among the oldest and often most-reliable voters. 84% of those who support the Tea Party vote Republican. 83% of those who oppose the Tea Party vote Democrat.

In an election today for United States Senator from Oregon, Incumbent Democrat Ron Wyden defeats Republican law school professor Jim Huffman, 53% to 35%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 7 weeks ago, Wyden now polls above 50% among men and women and among voters of all ages.

In a Republican Primary for US House of Representatives in Kansas’ 1st Congressional District today, 1 week until votes are counted, 3 candidates tie, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KWCH-TV Wichita.

State Senator Jim Barnett 24%, State Senator Tim Huelskamp 24%, and Realtor Tracey Mann 24%, as the final week of campaigning begins. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 2 weeks ago, the contest is effectively unchanged; Barnett and Mann are each down a statistically insignificant 1 point, and Huelskamp is up 2 points. The contest had been a 3-way tie, remains a 3-way tie. Mann had been in the news for several days immediately prior to the field period for this survey. No immediate movement, down or up, yet appears in Mann’s numbers.

Barnett may have one ever-so-slight advantage: Among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, Bennett leads. Barnett many not have many “banked” votes — just 9% of likely voters have taken advantage of advance voting — but Barnett may not need many banked voters with 3 evenly matched front-runners.

The Republican primary winner will face Democrat Alan Jilka, former mayor of Salinas, in November. Incumbent Republican Representative Jerry Moran is running for United States Senate and is not seeking reelection.

In an election for US House of Representatives in New Mexico’s 1st Congressional District today, Republican Jon Barela edges incumbent Democrat Martin Heinrich 51% to 45%, according to this latest exclusive KOB-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

Whites vote for the Republican. Hispanics favor the Democrat, though the Republican candidate is Hispanic, and past president of the Albuquerque Hispano Chamber of Commerce. Barela leads among voters who say “the economy” is the most important issue. Heinrich leads among voters who say “jobs” is most important. The more men who vote, the larger the Republican’s advantage. The more women who vote, the closer the contest will be. Heinrich succeeded 5-term Republican representative Heather Wilson in 2008. Heinrich is the first Democrat to represent the district since its creation in 1968.